July 22, 2014

End Times; Taleb, Kurzweil and Jesus. and upper limit on when Jesus might return.

I just sat in on a teaching that is part of the OneThing Pasadena conference.  It was a good refresher on what Jesus had to say about His return to Earth.

The wars and rumors of wars.  Earthquakes, famines and pestilences will increase.  (Matthew 24)
So I'm wondering what that translates to in our times.  While sitting there I googled earthquake history and noticed at first that earthquake counts over the last 11 years for quakes above 5.0 peaked in 2007 and have been less in following years.  However 2011 is not yet done, in fact, it's only a quarter done and if you take the current numbers and multiply by 4 you'll get the busiest earthquake year yet.   There's a few things missing before Jesus returns.  I haven't seen a 200 million man army rise up yet.  We do have weapons already to that could wipe out a quarter and a third of the global population.  Namely we have nukes.  We could also get wiped out in other ways.  A lot of soybeans are grown from a Monsanto brand of soybeans that grows well because it is resistent to the pesticide Roundup which Monsanto owns.  So it maximizes crop yield to have that combination of resistent plant and effective pesticide.  If nature or bad people come up with some exploit of that brand then the food supply could take a significant hit.

Other random thought: He tells us woe is to those who are pregnant and who nurse their babies when this tribulation comes.  That means women who can't or don't want to have babies are the ones receiving mercy.  Pretty hard word there.

Main thought: I can see why Jesus would come back sooner than later.  It's only going to get easier to ignore reality than to engage it.  Modern reality will only get more volatile.  Humanity will demand answers to what is happening and false prophets and false christs will rise to offer an answer.
?? Was Hitler one of those false Christs that promised to redeem the german people???

One of the main technologies expected over the next 10 to 20 years is improved virtual reality technology.  (Kurzweil - Singularity is Near).  There isn't going to be a lot of motivation for people who dont like reality not to just plug into their favorite virtual reality.  Some people can already do this with current tech of immersion.  Some ignore their world to enjoy the World of Warcraft, many other virtual realities exist to make this happen.   Some can sufficiently escape with television.  More and more people will have little emotional or social motivation to engage the world around them as more socializing and access to vicarious emotions go online.

On top of this additional power to ignore reality there's also advances in medical technology that will make it harder and harder to die (Kurzweil) .  Someone will see a time (according to Kurzweil) where anything that can go wrong in the human body can be fixed.  Murder could potentially become meaningless if we can repair anything that gets destroyed and revives the person upon repair.
Why does this matter to the second coming of Jesus?  Following Gods laws for a healthy prosperous life will become more inconsequential.


To the other side of the coin there's also more Black Swan events (Taleb - The Black Swan).  As technology magnifies the impact of human effort it also magnifies human mistakes.  Makes more bubbles in the economy.  Makes more runs on banks internationally.  Makes more effects on environment which could lead to disruptions in global water supply.  That translates to more famines, more wars for control of access to water and other vital resources.

So whether reality becomes more ignorable than ever before or more volatile and devastating than ever before, a lot will change.  As love is the antidote to sin, both will become increasingly void of meaning.  Or as humanity becomes more devastated by Black Swan events there will be less humanity to love, more reason to hate and fight over finite resources.  More reasons to vilify your neighbor so it becomes easier to justify killing and taking their stuff in times of desperation.

How am I possibly wrong:
1. Humanity won't get completely killed off and will bond during trying times as they work together to solve the worlds ever larger problems with the remnant of humanity that survives the Black Swan events.
2. The same technology that makes it easier to ignore reality and be entertained also makes it easier to engage the real world. The internet lets us escape with porn but it also lets us engage with Kiva.


So Jesus knows enough about humanity to wisely choose when the Earth will need his in person leadership.  Oddly it will be after a great revival.  We all get to share in the sufferings of Christ. .... Like God has always done, he prefers partnering with us to make things happen rather than just do it all for us.  God is not a micro-manager it seems even though He has the power and information required.

Designing a Great Government: Design Precept Anyone can sell nearly anything directly to anyone else in the World.


While doing quiet time.  I keep trying to be spiritual, sit in a room filled with live worship music a bunch of other Christians dancing randomly in the background, people sitting with blank or joyful faces eyes closed, others swaying.  Meanwhile I'm getting ideas on how to design higher quality government.

Tonight, my thoughts were again how do we push forward the quality of life for everyone?  How do we push government leaders into the same Key Performance Indicator accountability that any American CEO has to meet to keep his job?

One principle I want to develop: If you don't get results for the governed then you aren't the government.  Results could mean nearly anything and I think just agreeing on what Results means for government would be a huge step forward for all of mankind.  

A lot of media, hype, anxiety I see is people playing guessing games with friends about who actually runs the world.  Is it the CIA, or Rothschild's, the oil companies, the Freemasons, Catholic Church, Defense Contractors, Goldman Sachs.

I have no idea.  And I don't care.  ... Well at least I don't want to care.  Unfortunately it does matter who's in charge.  After reading Why Nations Fail it's painfully apparent that powerful groups do almost anything to the not-so-powerful to keep their power and prosperity.  My hope with setting more international standards for quality of life is that we all can move forward far faster than Industrial Revolution has thus far caused.

Some example standards I thought of:
Anyone anywhere can sell anything to anyone else directly.  Some legitimate limitations like nukes will apply.  But the point is that there's nothing stopping me from buying something straight from a specific person, if I so choose.  I think it's the ultimate fair trade requirement.

Prosper.com is peer to peer lending of money.
Relayrides.com is peer to peer leasing of cars.
Airbnb.com is peer to peer leasing of homes.
Etsy.com is peer to peer purchase of crafts.
These types of businesses that enable direct connection to many consumers needs to grow to an audience of the entire planet.  I suspect that some Governments will get in the way because they are paid to get in the way by power-brokers.  We need a quality data driven approach to incentivizing governments to stay out of the way of phenomenon.  It helps so many people directly add value other people's lives.

So where is the peer to peer site for buying food straight from the farmer?
What's the best the site to buy clothes straight from the tailor?

Source Cites:
www.prosper.com
www.airbnb.com
www.etsy.com

Man that's just one design principle for Great Government.



Innovation Wishlist: I wanna build a rail system that doesn't involve clearing lots of space.

So a few nights ago a friend dropped a prophetic word on me and I felt encouraged to do another sit and listen to God time in the prayer house. Basically I spent two hours getting pictures of technology surrounding the idea of what would it take to ship a full size shipping container along an elevated rail underneath a forest canopy without having to clear any trees. Watch the video on Shweeb and then imagine that for shipping containers. http://shweeb.com/

Here’s the stream of thoughts from last night:
What is the tallest shipping container elevator that's not a crane?
Look at Minecraft see if it's good for modding to illustrate shipping containers.
Find somebody that invented self installing rail.
Can you use trees as load bearing pilings without cutting them down?
Has anyone invented somekind of rail router for switching tracks, like a traffic circle but for suspended rail?
Regarding the Shweeb concept is there a way to use existing bicycle on a rail
Do I know any roller coaster engineers?
Who can model this in Unity 3D?
Let people volunteer their google app engine accounts to host 3d model of Congo.
Wiki 3d model. Score people on accuracy.
Can Google app engine host unity 3-D?
What's the heaviest shipping container can get?


Idea Citations: 

www.shweeb.com  

Moving Freight by Rail is 4x more efficient than by road.   | csx.com



June 02, 2014

Open source repo of standard legal contracts

I was daydreaming/hoping for an open source repo of standard legal contracts ... and then I found it. https://www.docracy.com/. However I couldn't find a contract for making it easy for a group of people to buy and own something like an exotic car or a neighborhood tractor mower. If any of my lawyer buddies are interested in doing such, I'll pitch in $50.
Docracy is the web's only open collection of legal contracts and the best way to negotiate and sign documents online.
DOCRACY.COM